Also, please scroll to the bottom of this article to see the latest tweets from Ryan Fowler (@FOXSportsFowler), D.J. Foster (@FOXSportsFoster), Adam Meyer (@FOXSportsMeyer) and me (@jhalpin37). That way, if information surfaces for any last minute changes, you can see our thoughts instantly.
Let’s get to today’s interesting facts, using DraftKings prices. We’ll cover all players on the 15-game slate that begins at 7:05 p.m. ET. Please note that much of the information in this post is being published several hours prior to game times, so check MLB lineups later to confirm that any recommended players are included.
5 Things to Watch:
1. A cheap Jaime Garcia ($6,900) joins Jon Lester ($9,600) the day’s biggest favorite at -220. The highest projected non-Coors run total is 9.5 for Brewers-Diamondbacks and Orioles-White Sox, while the lowest is 7.5 for Twins-Rays and Mets-Tigers. Not to quibble with the astute Vegas oddsmakers, but the Twins hit better than people think.
2. The rain forecast is above 50 percent for Marlins-Rockies, so if you want to stack Coors hitters, make sure to watch the weather reports this evening.
3. The Red Sox hope to get Hanley Ramirez (wrist) back for at least a couple of games this weekend. However, the Boston Herald reports that the Sox are “leaning toward not” playing David Ortiz at first base at Dodger Stadium, regardless of Ramirez’s status. Plan to avoid Big Papi.
4. Yo, BvPers: Evan Longoria ($3,300) has three homers in 20 at-bats vs. Ervin Santana. … Mike Trout ($5,200) has an 1.100 OPS in 72 at-bats vs. Felix Hernandez. … Ian Desmond ($4,400) is 6-for-12 with a couple of homers vs. Dallas Keuchel. … Just an FYI: I don’t use BvP much, but it’s here because I know some of you like it. Have any of you had regular success with it?
5. The Rockies hope to get Carlos Gonzalez (ankle) back tonight. Gonzalez, who will face Miami’s David Phelps, has a .395 career wOBA vs. righthanded pitchers, and a .422 career wOBA (1.001 OPS) at Coors Field. For context, only seven batters in MLB history have a career OPS above 1.001, and just 24 have wOBAs better than .422. CarGo’s salary tonight is $5,600.
Our recommendations for the day are below!
Stephen Piscotty got a big, fat goose egg as our must-start option, as his team was inexplicably shut out by Brandon Finnegan and a few relievers. Our recommended stack of the top four Twins’ hitters got a mediocre 39 points. On the bright side, David Dahl homered and tallied 16 DK points as our “Deal of the Day.”
Must Start of the day: Jose Altuve, HOU
Yep, it’s chalky. Martin Perez is bad, Altuve has been this year’s best DFS hitter (11 DK ppg), and he’s spent his career killing lefties (.394 wOBA). Pay the $5,100.
Deal of the day: Miguel Sano, MIN
A powerful cleanup hitter with a .415 wOBA versus a LHP for $3,300 seems like a pretty good deal. Only if you don’t use Blake Snell, of course.
Avoid of the day: Miguel Cabrera, DET
Miggy is on fire, with six homers in his last eight games. But why would you pay $5,100 for him against Noah Syndergaard when there are plenty of good, cheaper options facing bad pitchers?
Stack of the day: Arizona Diamondbacks
No Cubs, no Coors teams. They’re great if you want to spend (especially the Cubs against Dillon Overton), but you don’t need us for advice like that, and they’ll be widely owned. The D-backs are favored against Chase Anderson (6.33 road ERA) in a game with the day’s highest projected run total, and while they’re not cheap, they’re an interesting pivot. The top five hitters project to be Segura/Bourn/Goldschmidt/Lamb/Castillo.
Jon Lester, CHC: Not too expensive at $9,600 vs. a below-average A’s lineup.
Blake Snell, TAM: As noted above, I generally like the Twins’ hitters. However, some of the data speaks to using Snell. He’s a -130 favorite in a game with the day’s lowest projected run total, has averaged seven strikeouts and 23 DK points over his last four starts. Snell will cost you $8,700.
Miguel Gonzalez, CHW: Not tons of upside for $7,700, but Gonzalez has averaged 18.2 DK points over his last six starts, and faces an Orioles’ squad that has been struggling.
Cameron Rupp, PHI: $4,100 vs. Padres’ lefty Christian Friedrich? Yes, please.
Willson Contreras, CHC: $3,800 and playing well, with three consecutive double-digit DK games.
Edwin Encarnacion, TOR: $4,800, which is not a premium price in a good matchup vs. Dillon Gee.
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI: $4,700, part of D-backs’ stack.
Justin Morneau, CHW: Hitting fifth for $3,200 vs. the hittable Yovani Gallardo.
Jose Altuve, HOU: “Must Start of the day.”
Neil Walker, NYM: If you want to save here, try Walker’s power for $3,100, even vs. Verlander.
Jake Lamb, ARI: $5,000, part of D-backs’ stack.
Miguel Sano, MIN: “Deal of the day.”
Jean Segura, ARI: $5,000, part of D-backs’ stack. Also fits at 2B.
Francisco Lindor, CLE: At $3,600, the price is right in cozy Yankee Stadium vs. Michael Pineda.
Didi Gregorius, NYY: $3,100 at cozy Yankee Stadium, where he has an .838 OPS this season.
Carlos Gonzalez, COL: As noted above, expensive and a potential rainout. But nice to have if you can afford him.
George Springer, HOU: $4,800 is not a bad price for this matchup vs. Perez.
Michael Bourn, ARI: $3,500, part of D-backs’ stack. Yes, we know he’s the weakest hitter of the bunch.
Aaron Altherr, PHI: Four double-digit DK games in his first seven. Batting second in the order now, and only $2,900 vs. Friedrich.