Reminder: Always double check the lineup card before rosters lock to make sure that a player you’ve chosen to roster is playing that day, and check the weather to make sure your players won’t get rained out of their game.
Some thoughts on the pitching today:
Lance Lynn ($8,600) faces a Cubs team that is likely to be without Kyle Schwarber and has the 2nd highest K% vs RHP on the year at 24.2%. They also have a below average 96 wRC+ vs RHP. Lynn’s opposition is Dan Haren, who has been stranding an usually high % of his baserunners this year compared to his past years, making his 3.89 ERA look like it should be closer to his other peripheral statistics (4.92 FIP, for example). One thing to consider: Lynn rolled his ankle in his last start, and it’s unclear how this will affect him on the mound. Felix Hernandez had a rough stretch after he appeared to be pitching through an ankle injury.
I think Max Scherzer ($10,800) is likely to get good run support against Jon Niese, a LHP with an ERA over 4, but the Mets lineup has dramatically improved since late July. They’ve added Yoenis Cespedes, Travis d’Arnaud (back from injury), Michael Conforto (called up from the minors), David Wright (back from injury), Kelly Johnson, and Juan Uribe, and the AAA players that frequently were featured in the Mets lineup have not been as plentiful in recent weeks. Lucas Duda will also be back in the lineup tomorrow.
Two boom or bust middle tiered priced pitchers are Michael Pineda ($8,600) and Yordano Ventura ($8,500); either one is capable of throwing a dominant start with big strikeout totals, or launching a grenade start and blowing up a fantasy owner’s lineup. Pineda has excellent strikeout and walk rates but has been prone to those grenade starts this year. He faces an Orioles lineup that is vulnerable to strikeouts vs RHP (22.3% K%, third highest), but also has a top 10 wRC+ vs RHP at 101. Ventura faces a strikeout prone Twins lineup (21.6% K% vs RHP, 4th highest). Ventura has been fantastic in his last 5 starts, but unless something tangible happened in Ventura’s mound process that fueled those high level results, it could just be baseball randomness.
Zack Greinke ($12,000) faces an Angels offense that is a little banged up: both Mike Trout and Albert Pujols appear to be playing through injuries (Trout with his wrist and Pujols with his foot). The Angels toss a below average RHP, and the Dodgers have the #3 offense by wRC+ vs RHP this year, making run support for Greinke look good.
Kyle Kendrick re-enters the Rockies rotation, taking his 5.72 non Coors ERA into PetCo park, which has been playing much more hitter friendly this year. Theories for why it’s been playing differently include changes in wind patterns from construction in downtown San Diego. Padres hitters that have hit RHP well this year are:
Justin Upton ($4,000): 135 wRC+
Yonder Alonso ($2,800): 116 wRC+ (Alonso is currently day to day with a back injury, so keep an eye on his availability)
Yangervis Solarte ($3,400): 114 wRC+
3B- Todd Frazier ($2,300) vs Jeff Locke
Frazier’s price has tanked because of a terrible summer slump, but his numbers vs lefties on the season are very strong. He’s hit LHP to a 158 wRC+ and .389 ISO for the year, which includes the sample during his long slump, and the matchup takes place in his hitter friendly home park in Cincinnati. Locke has been about average vs RHB this year and gets a park downgrade. For $100 over the minimum, the potential value and upside is huge.
2B- Kolten Wong ($2,500) vs Dan Haren
Wong has hit RHP to a 119 wRC+ and .164 ISO, while Haren has allowed a .277/.325/.544 slash to LHB with a 6.10 FIP.
OF- Andre Ethier ($2,400) vs Nick Tropeano
Ethier has hit RHP to an elite 152 wRC+/.212 ISO and faces a below average RHP.
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