There are 14 MLB games on FanDuel’s Wednesday evening slate . The first games begin at 7:05pm with the last ones at 10:10pm. Please be sure to check your lineups and of course check the weather to make sure your players are actually playing tonight.
In yesterday’s DFS posting Tim Finnegan discussed avoiding the narrative and dealing with just the numbers. It’s something that’s easy to fall for. Let me use some of the pitchers I’m considering tonight to demonstrate what I mean.
Below are the overall rankings over the last month with a minimum of 20 innings pitched for the pitchers in question.
#16. Collin McHugh
#39. Jake Odorizzi
#43. Stephen Strasburg
#63. Jacob deGrom
#113. James Shields
#117. Jeff Samardzija
#129. Julio Teheran
I could easily stop right there and just tell you that McHugh is your best play and to steer clear of Teheran for Wednesday but that would be simply creating a narrative. That’s something we are trying to avoid.
Let’s consider each of these pitchers by the numbers in terms of FanDuel. FanDuel gives us 4 points per win, 1 point for strikeouts, 1 point for innings pitched and deducts a point for every earned run.
Collin McHugh ($9,000) is 2-1 over his last 4 starts. He’s allowed 4 earned runs over 28 innings pitched with 26 strikeouts. He’s been a tremendous value and his matchup Wednesday is against the Athletics who don’t strike out very much (17%) and they also don’t score much as their wRC+ of 94 indicates. The matchup against the A’s Aaron Brooks seems to be ideal for a win as he is 0-2 over his last 4 starts and has allowed 18 earned runs in 17 innings pitched. Houston strikes out a bunch (21%) but Brooks strikes out almost 8 hitters per nine. The components are there for a good night for McHugh.
Stephen Strasburg ($9,900) and Jacob deGrom ($10,900) face each other on Wednesday night. Strasberg has been whiffing 9 hitters per nine and is 2-1 over his last 4 starts with 8 earned runs in 23 innings pitched. deGrom is 2-1 over his last 5 starts with 10.13 strikeouts per nine innings with 12 earned runs over 29.1 innings pitched. The Mets are the hottest hitting team in baseball since the break with a 20 percent strikeout rate and wRC+ of 119 while the Nationals strikeout about 22 percent of the time with a wRC+ of 104. The numbers look good for both and the game should be close so you might need to consider the bullpens of both teams before spending the big bucks for either of these two on Wednesday.
Jake Odorizzi ($8,600) is 0-2 over his last 5 starts. He’s struck out nearly 10 hitters per nine innings and has allowed 19 earned runs in 36 innings pitched. He faces the Tigers who strikeout at a 20 percent rate with a wRC+ of 96. Kyle Lobstein is pitching for the Tigers and while the Rays have struggled at the plate this season they hit lefties very well with a 21 percent strikeout rate but a wRC+ of 115 against southpaws this season. Odorizzi could be a good value for the dollar on Wednesday.
The narrative will tell you that the Braves Julio Teheran ($8,000) has had a lousy 2015 but the numbers say over his past 5 starts he’s 2-1 with just over 8 strikeouts per nine innings with 14 earned runs in 29 innings pitched. He’ll face the Phillies and their month of August 23 percent strikeout rate, .170 ISO and wRC+ of 101. The Phillies will send out Adam Morgan who got rocked his last time out. The Braves aren’t very good offensively either so managiing a win out of this might not be so easy on Wednesday.
Based on the season long narrative Jeff Samardzija ($8,000) has struggled and is 1-4 over his last 5 starts. He’s striking out just over 9 per nine innings and has allowed 21 earned runs over his last 30.1 innings pitched. The Indians have a 19.9 percent strikeout rate with a .139 ISO and wRC+ of 109 during the month of August. Samardzija opponent is Josh Tomlin who has won his last 4 games so this one might be difficult to get a win for Samardzija
Based on the season long narrative Big Game James Shields ($8,500) hasn’t been very effective this season but is 2-2 over his last 5 starts with 8.40 strikeouts and 14 earned runs over 30 innings pitched. Shields faces a Rockies team that on the road has a 24 percent strikeout rate with a .152 ISO and wRC+ of 79. His mound opponent Chris Rusin is decent but not spectacular so this could be money well spent on Wednesday.
Stacking Opportunities for Wednesday
The Tampa Bay Rays in general and Evan Longoria ($3,300), Logan Forsythe ($3,300) and Asdrubal Cabrera ($3,400) hit lefties extremely well and at their price its hard to pass them up. San Francisco left handed bats against the Diamondbacks Zack Godley might be effective on Wednsday also.
Value Picks for Wednesday Evening
Adam Jones ($3,000) is priced so low it’s hard to pass him by. He didn’t play on Tuesday due to shoulder soreness but if he’s able to play Wednesday he has a terrific matchup with the Yankees C.C. Sabbathia that must be exploited.
Good luck today Fantasy Baseball owner!!
On this week’s Phil’s Fantasy Sports Fake Teams Tim Finnegan join me to discuss DFS strategies like stacking as well as advice on how to win big DFS Tournaments. Fantasy Baseball legend Lenny Melnick joins me to talk 2016 Fantasy Baseball prospects and how Fantasy Baseball has changed over the years, Fasketball curator Daniel Grezlak joins me to talk about his unique and free to the public Fantasy Basketball stats site, Rotowire NBA writer Alex Rikleen joins me to discuss the Fantasy Value of Damian Lillard, what stats are the best for determining Fantasy Basketball value and much more Fantasy Hoops talk and Draft Kings Playbook writer Jason Walker and I discuss Fantasy Football Wide Receiver rankings and some sleepers. You can download the show from my site or listen below.