Fantasy Baseball: Monday’s DFS advice – CBSSports.com
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We’re going to find out Monday night just how much park factors and matchups matter. Not definitively, but for tonight at least.
Jon Gray has had a pretty rough start to his career, but most of the damage he has surrendered has been at home in the worst pitcher’s park in baseball. Gray gets to visit the much more friendly Petco Park and face off against one of the worst lineups in baseball. At $5,500, that seems really enticing, but it’s also a huge risk with Cueto and Keuchel having seemingly great matchups.
One of the reasons I’m so tempted to go cheap at pitcher is the number of expensive hitters with great matchups. The outfield, in particular is stacked with great hitters in good parks against bad pitchers. If you need to find some value on the infield to fit those outfielders, I would start with Kelby Tomlinson and Alcides Escobar.
Jon Gray ($5,500, $7,900)
Matchups can get overstated at times, but there are a lot of things to love about Gray tonight. His price coupled with the matchup in a place other than Coors is most of it. Gray has only made four career starts on the road, but he has a 2.70 ERA with more than 11 K/9. The Padres have a .622 OPS and a .272 wOBA against RHP this year. They’ve also struck out 26 percent of the time.
Dallas Keuchel ($10,500, $9,900)
If you don’t want to go cheap at SP tonight, I believe Keuchel is the way to go. I came into the year expecting the Twins to be better against lefties, but their .269 wOBA and 25.9 percent K rate say otherwise. Keuchel has had an up and down start to the year, with the biggest worry being his declining K rate and increasing walk rate. This is the type of matchup you would expect to help Keuchel get healthy.
Jose Berrios ($6,200, $7,700)
Berrios had a rough major league debut, but this is an offense with a high K potential facing a pitcher it has never seen. Berrios struck out at least a batter per inning at every level in the minors and should have a low ownership. He’s a tournament only play because the Astros could light him up, but 7+ Ks is not out of the question.
Blue Jays vs. Rangers
I do not believe in A.J. Griffin, especially at the Rogers Centre. Griffin has a 45 percent fly ball rate this year and strikes out less than seven batters per nine innings. That is a terrible combination against a Blue Jays team in their park. Edwin Encarnacion is my favorite play, but I’ll definitely have a couple of lineups with 2-5 in the Jays order.
Mets vs. Braves
This will be the chalk stack of the night. Mike Foltynewicz has a 5.64 ERA in 105.1 career innings. He has been awful against everyone, but his .401 wOBA surrendered to lefties is especially enticing. Curtis Granderson is my favorite play, but Michael Conforto is really interesting. Conforto’s price has risen to the level of Jose Bautista and Ryan Braun, both of whom have good matchups in their home parks.
Brewers vs. Angels
Speaking of Braun, a matchup with Jered Weaver awaits. Weaver is off to a good (lucky) start but his K rate (4.2 K/9) betrays him. Domingo Santana is my favorite value in this offense, assuming he’s leading off. I also like Braun, Lucroy and Chris Carter.
I’m going to offer my early take on a cash game lineup, but of course you should always check out our Sportsline projections for lineup changes right up to lock. Also, check out our podcast on iTunes for extended thoughts on each slate from Chris Towers, Mike McClure and myself.
P Jon Gray $5,500
C Buster Posey $3,400
1B Edwin Encarnacion $3,400
2B Neil Walker $4,000
3B Anthony Rendon $2,800
SS Alcides Escobar $2,300
OF Mike Trout $4,700
OF Jose Bautista $4,300
OF Ryan Braun $4,300
P Dallas Keuchel $9,900
P Jon Gray $7,900
C Jonathan Lucroy $3,700
1B Edwin Encarnacion $3,800
2B Daniel Murphy $4,000
3B Josh Donaldson $4,500
SS Alcides Escobar $3,100
OF Michael Conforto $3,800
OF Jose Bautista $4,100
OF Mike Trout $5,200
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