Fantasy Baseball: Monday’s DFS Advice – CBSSports.com
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Normally it’s a bad move to fade Coors Field, so doing so when the Blue Jays are in town seems pretty silly. To be fair, that’s not exactly what I’m advocating. There are a few players I really like from that game. I just don’t think that Coors is the best place to stack on Monday. I’d rather use Yankee Stadium.
It starts with the pricing. Let’s use a lineup with Danny Duffy (the cheapest pitcher I’ll use) as an example. Here’s your amount left per player if you stack each lineup with Duffy on FanDuel:
Blue Jays – $2,350
Rockies – $2,700
Rangers – $3,325
Yankees – $3,400
This is always the case but it seems exaggerated because of the second problem with Coors. The pitchers there are actually pretty good. Jon Gray is actually very good in my opinion. Now, Coors has made good pitchers look bad many times before. Yankee Stadium doesn’t have to make anyone look bad, because it has two bad pitchers pitching in it.
One good way to look at it is you can stack Rangers or Yankees with Arrieta and have about the same amount left per player as you would stacking the Blue Jays with Duffy. I’ll take the Arrieta side of that equation every time.
Jake Arrieta ($11,900, $13,700)
Arrieta hasn’t exactly been himself lately, but he’s still been pretty good. He’s far and away the biggest favorite of the night (-250), and no offense is projected to score fewer runs than the Reds (3.1). Maybe the best part about rostering him is that the game at Coors is going to limit his ownership. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 50 Fantasy points should be the expectation.
Trevor Bauer ($8,900, $12,800)
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Bauer is the highest owned pitcher on the slate. His price allows you to use a chunk of Coors, and his last start was phenomenal. The Braves’ reduced K rate (especially vs. RHP) is concerning, but Bauer has a very high win potential and should pitch deep into the game. Walks are the big concern, but he has walked just one in three of his past four starts. To be clear, there’s no way I’m playing Bauer at that price on DraftKings.
Danny Duffy ($7,400, $6,800)
I would normally expect Duffy to get overlooked on a robust slate like this against a team as highly regarded as the Cardinals. With Coors in the equation, he may not. The Cardinals’ .311 wOBA and 21 percent K rate vs. LHP ranks in the bottom third in baseball and their park provides a nice cushion for a fly ball pitcher like Duffy. I’ll have at least one Coors stack and one Yankees/Rangers stack with Duffy on the hill.
We’ve got another huge over/under at Coors as one of the best offenses in baseball visits the best hitter’s park. The only problem is we have two pitchers who are definitively not bad. I’m more likely to focus on the hitters I think are good values like Troy Tulowitzki and Ryan Raburn. Raburn is known as a lefty masher, but he has crushed RHP in limited exposure at Coors.
Yankees vs. Rangers
No one should be surprised if this is actually the highest scoring game of the night. Chi Chi Gonzalez is making his 2016 debut after a surprisingly successful 2015, at least based on ERA. Then you see that Gonzalez barely struck out four batters per nine innings and had more walks than Ks. He was exceptionally lucky to be merely below average. This is a terrible park/lineup for Gonzalez, and I would expect the Yankees to crush him.
Rangers @ Yankees
I actually like the Rangers hitters even more than the Yankees, with Nomar Mazara and Shin Soo Choo being my favorite. Prince Fielder is still dirt cheap and seems to have woken up from his slumber, at least temporarily. Nova has actually had some success vs. lefties this season, but for his career he has surrendered an .874 OPS to them at Yankees Stadium.
I’m going to offer my early take on a cash game lineup, but of course you should always check out our Sportsline projections for lineup changes right up to lock. Also, check out our podcast on iTunes for extended thoughts on each slate from Chris Towers, Mike McClure and myself.
P Jake Arrieta $11,900
C Curt Casali $2,000
1B Prince Fielder $2,400
2B Logan Forsythe $2,800
3B Maikel Franco $2,900
SS Troy Tulowitzki $3,800
OF Nomar Mazara $2,800
OF Jacoby Ellsbury $3,400
OF Alex Gordon $2,900
P Jake Arrieta $13,700
P Danny Duffy $6,800
C Nick Hundley $3,200
1B Prince Fielder $3,300
2B Logan Forsythe $4,200
3B Maikel Franco $3,600
SS Troy Tulowitzki $4,300
OF Nomar Mazara $3,400
OF Ryan Raburn $3,400
OF Shin-Soo Choo $3,800